Raymond’s highly scientific predictions for the 2006 NCAA men’s basketball tournament


Methodology explained earlier.

Update:

  • Correct predictions are in green.
  • Incorrect predictions are in red.
  • (!) marks upsets correctly predicted.
  • (*) marks upsets predicted but did not take place.
  • (x) marks actual upsets not predicted.

Dayton mini-bracket

Monmouth (2003) Hampton
Hampton (1978)

Atlanta bracket

Duke (2004) Duke George (*)
Washington
George
Washington
George
Washington
...
Geo. Washington (1988) George
Washington
UNC-Wilmington (2003)
Syracuse (2004) Syracuse (x) Syracuse
...
LSU (2005) LSU
...
West Virginia (1995) West
Virginia
West
Virginia
West
Virginia
Southern Illinois (2001)
Iowa (2003) Iowa (x)
...
California (2003) California (x) California
NC State (2005)
Texas (2006) Texas
...

Oakland bracket

Memphis (2001) Memphis Arkansas Kansas Kansas
...
Arkansas (1997) Arkansas (x)
Bucknell (2004)
Pittsburgh (1996) Pittsburgh Kansas
...
Kansas (1995) Kansas (x)
...
Indiana (2003) San Diego St. (*) San Diego St. Marquette
San Diego St. (1996)
Gonzaga (1998) Gonzaga
...
Marquette (1995) Marquette (x) Marquette
Alabama (2003)
UCLA (1997) UCLA
...

Washington, D.C. bracket

Connecticut (1996) Connecticut Connecticut Connecticut Seton Hall
...
Kentucky (2001) Kentucky
UAB (2002)
Washington (2004) Washington Washington (!)
...
Illinois (2005) Illinois
...
Michigan State (2003) George
Mason (!)
George
Mason (!)
Seton Hall
George Mason (1996)
North Carolina (2000) North
Carolina
...
Wichita State (1999) Seton Hall (*) Seton Hall
Seton Hall (1995)
Tennessee (2004) Tennessee
...

Minneapolis bracket

Villanova (1988) Villanova Villanova Villanova Villanova
...
Arizona (1997) Arizona
Wisconsin (2004)
Nevada (2005) Nevada (x) Boston
College
...
Boston College (1996) Boston
College
...
Oklahoma (1994) Oklahoma (x) Oklahoma Oklahoma
UW-Milwaukee (2003)
Florida (2003) Florida
...
Georgetown (2001) Northern
Iowa (*)
Northern
Iowa
Northern Iowa (1995)
Ohio State (2002) Ohio State
...

Finals

George Washington (1988) George
Washington
George
Washington
Kansas (1995)
Seton Hall (1995) Villanova
Villanova (1988)

As I noted yesterday, the final will be very close, with George Washington University edging out Villanova by two months, 1988.08.01 to 1988.10.05.

Other people have come up with their own systems. The person a few doors down from me chose an algorithm that can be captured in three words: "Shorter name wins". But my favorite is somebody whose highly scientific method is "The team that pays its basketball coach more."

Comments (3)
  1. Anonymous says:

    Shortest name wins is too simple for my tastes.  Here’s my idea:

    Convert the name into the numbers (using ASCII or EBCIDIC character sets, or some Unicode thing if you want) and divide that number by the number of letters in the name.  This averages out the number of letters in the name.

    Now, pick one side to be less than 0 and the other to be more than 0.  On the side less than 0, the lowest average will win.  On the other side, the highest average will win.  Now you have one team that has won by lowest average number and the other that has won by highest.  Recompute the average of the two teams after first adding 1 for every capitol letter to the number of letters.  Team closest to the original average wins.

    It’s kinda like master browser elections… The results don’t really matter (to the average user) unless you’re the unfortunate guy who’s system was made the master browser on a busy network.

  2. Write the name of each college as an ASCII string and consider this as a (large) integer.

    For each matchup…

    1) If the two integers are relatively prime, the one with the smallest prime factor wins.

    2) If the two integers have a greatest common factor, divide each of the them by this greatest common factor.  Then the quotients will be relatively prime… the quotient with the smallest prime factor wins.

Comments are closed.