Let’s play this by the numbers..

I had to laugh tonight, as the Adobe folks decided to burst Mozilla folks bubble around the whole Download Mozilla Day event (classic gimmick to get Mozilla penetration numbers up, nice marketing ploy though..).

Ben Forta @ Adobe.com:

There have been over a billion downloads of Flash Player this year alone (less than 5 months), which averages out to over 6 million a day. And we’ve actually publicly stated that we’ve had days where downloads exceeded 10 million in a day.

Ryan Stewart @ Adobe.com :

So there’s not actually a world record to break, but to put that in perspective, we get 8 million installs of the Flash Player…..on an average day.

Ted Patrick @ Adobe.com :

I see is that Adobe Flash Player has seen installation spikes daily that go into the 14 Million to 25 Million per day range.

It sounds like Adobe folks would be great story tellers about the Fish that got away

I’ll leave you with this quote from a famous American:

…There are lies, damned lies and statistics…
– Mark Twain

I couldn’t make this stuff up if I tried 🙂

Comments (6)

  1. I can’t fault the Adobe folks for calling out Mozilla on a "world record attempt".  When you prop yourself up like that it’s an easy target for everyone to come out with their numbers.  The Flash download numbers are pretty large and I know they play a part in the technology decisions of others.  I do agree with you though that a standard number to be used would be good.

    They all have variations so they are actually not all quoting the same number.  When numbers get that big it’s hard to nail down what the number is right when you need it for a comment.

    Heck I still use 1.5 million downloads a day for SL that was quoted at MIX08.  Have an updated number for us that can be put out in some type of officially terms?


  2. Garry Trinder says:


    Agreed.. but the point is we are consistent across the board in that number. If you’re going to start shouting numbers, make sure you’re all aligned.

    It boils down to the fact Adobe just don’t know and one can argue the point, but ultimately its high we all agree but to what degree in height, well that’s just a mystery number..

    4500 samples of folks whom speak english only and vary in flash player iterations is a good guess though.. but lets be clear, its a guestimation not an accurate line in the sand.

    1.5million was the average at the time of MIX, i suspect its gotten a lot higher but when we are ready to release that next number, we’ll at least be consistent about it…


  3. I don’t see the inconsistency: Ben says they average 6 mil and they’v e had days they’ve publicly stated 10 mil… Ryan says the average is 8 million.  And Ted says spikes in 14-25 million.  The only inconsistency are the averages mentioned by Ben and Ryan… but Ben was saying his average was based on the last 5 months.  Show me where this is not accurate.

    In fact, while you’re at it, maybe you can point people to the stats on Silverlight.  (Don’t quote numbers–just point to where the stats are shown.)

  4. Garry Trinder says:

    I’m confused Phillip? You don’t see the inconsistencies and then you go on to say that Ben and Ryan were inconsistent? *double look*.. "…The prosecution rests your honour.."

    We don’t get into the benchmark games with Adobe (as it triggers fights, someone cries and nothing gets resolved).

    That being said, I sit down the hall for one of the guys whom handled the Adobe Penetration Analysis (now works for us) and it’s a got a scary story associated to it. Thus I suspect why we don’t follow the same methodology. Hey, it works for Adobe and I don’t fault them for capitalizing on it, as a good number to promote is good for one and all.

    That being said, our last public release of the "stats" were:


    We previously reported an average of 1.5 million downloads per day, this however, doesn’t count other distribution models (ie We announced a relationship with HP to ship the Microsoft Live ToolBar on all new consumer machines, which also has Silverlight installed).

    All the best.


  5. The whole sentence included the point that Ben was only referring to the last 5 months.  You’ve got to figure that it goes up a few ticks every time you make a post pointing people to them.   I work down the hall from the guy who does your stats and he said he just made it up.

  6. Garry Trinder says: