The current President of the United States, Donald Trump, has tweeted several times about the stock market.
- February 16th, 2017 Stock market hits new high with longest winning streak in decades. Great level of confidence and optimism -
even before tax plan rollout!
- July 3rd, 2017 Dow hit a new intraday all-time high! I wonder whether or not the Fake News Media will so report?
- July 12th, 2017 Stock market hits another high with spirit and enthusiasm so positive.
Jobs outlook looking very good! #MAGA 🇺🇸
- July 31st, 2017 Highest Stock Market EVER, best economic numbers in years, unemployment lowest in 17 years,
wages raising, border secure, S.C.: No WH chaos!
- August 1st, 2017 Stock Market could hit all-time high (again) 22,000 today.
Was 18,000 only 6 months ago on Election Day. Mainstream media seldom mentions!
- August 3rd, 2017 Business is looking better than ever with business enthusiasm at record levels.
Stock Market at an all-time high. That doesn't just happen!
- October 5th, 2017 Stock Market hits an ALL-TIME high! Unemployment lowest in 16 years!
Business and manufacturing enthusiasm at highest level in decades!
- October 17th, 2017 WOW! (includes an animation titled "DOW PASSES 23,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME")
(Not an exhaustive list)
Since I look at data for a living I thought I would take a look at how the stock market has actually performed historically, broken up by President.
I had some trouble initially deciding what benchmark to use to measure stock market performance. I finally settled on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, even though it is not a particularly good indicator, because:
- President Trump cited it directly.
- The historical data goes back quite a long time, which increases the number of presidents I can compare.
I downloaded the DJIA data from https://stooq.com/q/d/?s=^dji and I hand-copied the US presidents from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States.
Then I wrote a small PowerShell script (~150 lines) which ran through both lists and generated the output below.
I omitted Presidents whose terms did not overlap the Dow Jones data I had, which started during Grover Cleveland's second term, and continued on to the day before I ran the script.
I calculated the annualized return using the following formula:
return = ((last price) / (first price))1 / (time in years)
|President||First market day||Last market day||Annual return||Record highs|
|Date||Open||Date||Close||Count||Mean days to new record high|
|Grover Cleveland||1896-05-27||29.39||1897-03-04||29.94||2 %||8||35|
|William McKinley||1897-03-05||30.02||1901-09-13||48.71||11 %||70||24|
|Theodore Roosevelt||1901-09-16||50.70||1909-03-04||59.24||2 %||36||76|
|William Taft||1909-03-05||59.46||1913-03-04||58.45||0 %||0||N/A|
|Woodrow Wilson||1913-03-05||59.16||1921-03-04||75.11||3 %||66||44|
|Warren Harding||1921-03-07||75.26||1923-08-02||88.20||7 %||0||N/A|
|Calvin Coolidge||1923-08-06||88.51||1929-03-04||313.90||25 %||171||12|
|Herbert Hoover||1929-03-05||313.90||1933-03-03||53.80||-36 %||25||58|
|Franklin Roosevelt||1933-03-15||57.10||1945-04-12||158.50||9 %||0||N/A|
|Harry Truman||1945-04-13||158.50||1953-01-20||288.00||8 %||0||N/A|
|Dwight Eisenhower||1953-01-21||288.00||1961-01-20||634.40||10 %||142||21|
|John Kennedy||1961-01-23||634.40||1963-11-22||711.50||4 %||30||34|
|Lyndon Johnson||1963-11-26||733.00||1969-01-20||931.30||5 %||112||17|
|Richard Nixon||1969-01-21||931.30||1974-08-09||777.30||-3 %||16||127|
|Gerald Ford||1974-08-12||777.30||1977-01-20||959.00||9 %||0||N/A|
|Jimmy Carter||1977-01-21||959.00||1981-01-20||950.70||0 %||0||N/A|
|Ronald Reagan||1981-01-21||950.70||1989-01-20||2235.40||11 %||153||19|
|George H. W. Bush||1989-01-23||2235.40||1993-01-20||3242.00||10 %||56||26|
|Bill Clinton||1993-01-21||3242.00||2001-01-19||10587.60||16 %||266||11|
|George W. Bush||2001-01-22||10581.90||2009-01-20||7949.09||-4 %||56||52|
|Barack Obama||2009-01-21||7949.17||2017-01-20||19827.25||12 %||121||24|
|Donald Trump||2017-01-23||19794.79||2017-11-01||23435.01||24 %||54||5|
I will mostly leave the interpretation of this summary to you, dear reader. Nevertheless, I will hazard some observations:
- The Dow Jones generally rises, at an average rate of 6% a year (though it is bursty.)
- Record highs are quite common, happening on average once a month (though this is also bursty.)
- Under President Trump, so far, the Dow Jones has an annual return of 24%. Compare to Calvin Coolidge's 25%, Herber Hoover's -36%, and the overall 6%.
- Under President Trump, so far, the Dow Jones has reached a record high about every 5 days. Compare to Calvin Coolidge's and Bill Clinton's about-every-11-or-12-days, Franklin Roosevelt's and Harry Truman's (combined) zero highs over 20 years, and the overall about every 32 days.
EDIT: uploaded script and a snapshot of the source data to GitHub https://github.com/mvaneerde/blog/tree/master/dow-jones-by-president