The current President of the United States, Donald Trump, has tweeted several times about the stock market.
- February 16th, 2017 Stock market hits new high with longest winning streak in decades. Great level of confidence and optimism -
even before tax plan rollout!
- July 3rd, 2017 Dow hit a new intraday all-time high! I wonder whether or not the Fake News Media will so report?
- July 12th, 2017 Stock market hits another high with spirit and enthusiasm so positive.
Jobs outlook looking very good! #MAGA 🇺🇸
- July 31st, 2017 Highest Stock Market EVER, best economic numbers in years, unemployment lowest in 17 years,
wages raising, border secure, S.C.: No WH chaos!
- August 1st, 2017 Stock Market could hit all-time high (again) 22,000 today.
Was 18,000 only 6 months ago on Election Day. Mainstream media seldom mentions!
- August 3rd, 2017 Business is looking better than ever with business enthusiasm at record levels.
Stock Market at an all-time high. That doesn't just happen!
- October 5th, 2017 Stock Market hits an ALL-TIME high! Unemployment lowest in 16 years!
Business and manufacturing enthusiasm at highest level in decades!
- October 17th, 2017 WOW! (includes an animation titled "DOW PASSES 23,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME")
- October 21st, 2017 Stock Market hits another all time high on Friday. 5.3 trillion dollars up since Election. Fake News doesn't spent much time on this!
- October 25th, 2017 Stock Market just hit another record high! Jobs looking very good.
- November 4th, 2017 Unemployment is down to 4.1%, lowest in 17 years. 1.5 million new jobs created since I took office. Highest stock Market ever, up $5.4 trill
- November 22nd, 2017 Will be having meetings and working the phones from the Winter White House in Florida (Mar-a-Lago). Stock Market hit new Record High yesterday - $5.5 trillion gain since E. Many companies coming back to the U.S. Military building up and getting very strong.
- November 23rd, 2017 HAPPY THANKSGIVING, your Country is starting to do really well. Jobs coming back, highest Stock Market EVER, Military getting really strong, we will build the WALL, V.A. taking care of our Vets, great Supreme Court Justice, RECORD CUT IN REGS, lowest unemployment in 17 years....!
- November 28th, 2017 Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all finished the day at new RECORD HIGHS!
- November 29th, 2017 Looks like another great day for the Stock Market. Consumer Confidence is at Record High. I guess somebody likes me (my policies)!
- November 29th, 2017 Economy growing! Excluding hurricane effects, CEA estimates that real GDP growth would have been 3.9% in Q3. Stock market at a new high, unemployment at a low. We are winning and TAX CUTS will shift our economy into high gear!
- November 30th, 2017 Stock Market hits new Record High. Confidence and enthusiasm abound. More great numbers coming out!
- November 30th, 2017 The Dow just broke 24,000 for the first time (another all-time Record). If the Dems had won the Presidential Election, the Market would be down 50% from these levels and Consumer Confidence, which is also at an all-time high, would be “low and glum!”
- November 30th, 2017 Our FIFTH 1K milestone of 2017! #DOW24K #MAGA
- December 10th, 2017 Things are going really well for our economy, a subject the Fake News spends as little time as possible discussing! Stock Market hit another RECORD HIGH, unemployment is now at a 17 year low and companies are coming back into the USA. Really good news, and much more to come!
- December 12th, 2017 Consumer Confidence is at an All-Time High, along with a Record High Stock Market. Unemployment is at a 17 year low. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! Working to pass MASSIVE TAX CUTS (looking good)
- December 14th, 2017 Republican Tax Cuts are looking very good. All are working hard. In the meantime, the Stock Market hit another record high!
- December 15th, 2017 DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ close at record highs! #MAGA
- December 18th, 2017 70 Record Closes for the Dow so far this year! We have NEVER had 70 Dow Records in a one year period. Wow!
- December 19th, 2017 DOW RISES 5000 POINTS ON THE YEAR FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER - MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
- December 23rd, 2017 The Stock Market is setting record after record and unemployment is at a 17 year low. So many things accomplished by the Trump Administration, perhaps more than any other President in first year. Sadly, will never be reported correctly by the Fake News Media!
(Not an exhaustive list)
Since I look at data for a living I thought I would take a look at how the stock market has actually performed historically, broken up by President.
I had some trouble initially deciding what benchmark to use to measure stock market performance. I finally settled on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, even though it is not a particularly good indicator, because:
- President Trump cited it directly.
- The historical data goes back quite a long time, which increases the number of presidents I can compare.
I downloaded the DJIA data from https://stooq.com/q/d/?s=^dji and I hand-copied the US presidents from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States.
Then I wrote a small PowerShell script (~150 lines) which ran through both lists and generated the output below.
I omitted Presidents whose terms did not overlap the Dow Jones data I had, which started during Grover Cleveland's second term, and continued on to the day before I ran the script.
I calculated the annualized return using the following formula:
return = ((last price) / (first price))1 / (time in years)
|President||First market day||Last market day||Annual return||Record highs|
|Date||Open||Date||Close||Count||Mean days to new record high|
|Grover Cleveland||1896-05-27||29.39||1897-03-04||29.94||2 %||8||35|
|William McKinley||1897-03-05||30.02||1901-09-13||48.71||11 %||70||24|
|Theodore Roosevelt||1901-09-16||50.70||1909-03-04||59.24||2 %||36||76|
|William Taft||1909-03-05||59.46||1913-03-04||58.45||0 %||0||N/A|
|Woodrow Wilson||1913-03-05||59.16||1921-03-04||75.11||3 %||66||44|
|Warren Harding||1921-03-07||75.26||1923-08-02||88.20||7 %||0||N/A|
|Calvin Coolidge||1923-08-06||88.51||1929-03-04||313.90||25 %||171||12|
|Herbert Hoover||1929-03-05||313.90||1933-03-03||53.80||-36 %||25||58|
|Franklin Roosevelt||1933-03-15||57.10||1945-04-12||158.50||9 %||0||N/A|
|Harry Truman||1945-04-13||158.50||1953-01-20||288.00||8 %||0||N/A|
|Dwight Eisenhower||1953-01-21||288.00||1961-01-20||634.40||10 %||142||21|
|John Kennedy||1961-01-23||634.40||1963-11-22||711.50||4 %||30||34|
|Lyndon Johnson||1963-11-26||733.00||1969-01-20||931.30||5 %||112||17|
|Richard Nixon||1969-01-21||931.30||1974-08-09||777.30||-3 %||16||127|
|Gerald Ford||1974-08-12||777.30||1977-01-20||959.00||9 %||0||N/A|
|Jimmy Carter||1977-01-21||959.00||1981-01-20||950.70||0 %||0||N/A|
|Ronald Reagan||1981-01-21||950.70||1989-01-20||2235.40||11 %||153||19|
|George H. W. Bush||1989-01-23||2235.40||1993-01-20||3242.00||10 %||56||26|
|Bill Clinton||1993-01-21||3242.00||2001-01-19||10587.60||16 %||266||11|
|George W. Bush||2001-01-22||10581.90||2009-01-20||7949.09||-4 %||56||52|
|Barack Obama||2009-01-21||7949.17||2017-01-20||19827.25||12 %||121||24|
|Donald Trump||2017-01-23||19794.79||2018-01-03||24922.68||28 %||72||5|
I will mostly leave the interpretation of this summary to you, dear reader. Nevertheless, I will hazard some observations:
- The Dow Jones generally rises, at an average rate of 6% a year (though it is bursty.)
- Record highs are quite common, happening on average once a month (though this is also bursty.)
- Under President Trump, so far, the Dow Jones has an annual return of 28%. Compare to Calvin Coolidge's 25%, Herbert Hoover's -36%, and the overall 6%.
- Under President Trump, so far, the Dow Jones has reached a record high about every 5 days. Compare to Calvin Coolidge's and Bill Clinton's about-every-11-or-12-days, Franklin Roosevelt's and Harry Truman's (combined) zero highs over 20 years, and the overall about every 32 days.
EDIT: uploaded script and a snapshot of the source data to GitHub https://github.com/mvaneerde/blog/tree/master/dow-jones-by-president
(sporadic edits to refresh data and add tweets)