In the book, "How To Run Successful Projects III, The Silver Bullet", Fergus O'Connell uses a scoring system to predict project success.
- (20) Visualize the goal
- (20) Make a list of jobs
- (10) There must be one leader
- (10) Assign people to jobs
- (10) Manage expectations, allow a margin of error, have a fallback position
- (10) Use an appropriate leadership style
- (10) Know what's going on
- (10) Tell people what's going on
- (00) Repeat steps 1-8 until step 10
- (00) The Prize
What this means is that having clarity on what you want to accomplish and being able to identify the work to be done (steps 1 and 2) are the more significant indicators of project success.
After managing several projects over the years, I tend to agree. Step 2 is particularly interesting because it not only helps you calculate schedule and budget, but it helps you identify the right people for the jobs.