Keynote: The Next 20 Years of Gaming


Speaker: Ray Kurzweil

[Aside: One of the best talks I’ve ever been to…ever]

Rough notes below

Acceleration of Progress

  • Studying exponential growth of technology
  • Games are the cutting edge, VR will be more competitive
  • VR advantages – become someone else, Ray became 25 year-old female named Ramona

 

Perspective of next several decades

  • Study last several decades to make forward looking predictions
    • 1980’s book, predictions tracked very well (Arpanet doubling)
    • Predicting world wide web connecting world
    • Chess supercomputer doubling power and beating machines
    • Decentralized electronic communication – effect on Russian totalitarian control
    • Democratizing tools of creativity – Kid in dorm room can build full HD video
  • What are the trends?
  • Became inventor at 5 years old – key is timing
  • Tools of production will also be democratized (Nano technology)
  • 1 billion fold increase in computation in the last 40 years
  • Another billion fold increase with same costs in next 25 years
  • Pea-size computer today
  • Apply 1B and 100K-fold size shrinking, expand intelligence, will be platelet size and AI inside your body…"but I’m getting ahead of myself"
  • Fat insulin receptor gene
    • Hold on to every calorie, hunting may be bad, we live in an area of abundance, obesity is the problem
      • What would happen if we turned gene off (RNA), rats 20% longer lives, thin
      • Companies rushing to bring to market for humans
      • Appetite suppressants – Like a birth control pill that inhibits sex
  • People make linear projections instead of exponential
    • Acceleration is so fast, things change radically in just a few years
  • 6/7 years ago, people didn’t use search engines, blogs, podcasts, MMOs, social networks didn’t exist

 

Kurzweil Reading Machine

  • Got started in 2002 for device that would be possible,
  • 5,000 times smaller, now the size of a cell phone
  • Takes a screenshot of a document, does real-time TTS

 

Game Technology will be completely different

  • Games becoming harbinger of technology

Apply IT through energy

  • nanotechnology
  • 19th century
  • New generation of nano-engineered solar panels, less expensive per watt for crossover
  • Is there enough sunlight?
  • Within 20 years to capture 1/10,000 of Sun fuels
  • V/C – Pet interest of Larry Paige
  • Doubling amount of solar energy every two years

Paradigm Shift Rate is now doubling every decade

  • Phone 50 years to be adopted
  • Countdown to singularity – theory of evolution
    • Life 1 Billion years
    • Biologic evolution accelerating
    • homo sapiens (100K years)
    • Technology builds on technology
      • Leads to technological evolution

Exponential growth

  • Looks very similar to linear when it starts, can even be sublinear, but growth is exponential
  • History of computation follows exponential growth
    • Vacuum tubes exponential growth did end
    • Transistors took over to exponential growth will end by ~2020, transistors are 2D only
      • Switch to 3D chips, multilayer circuits, Intel is prototyping 3D
  • Despite unpredictable history (world wars, depression, etc), technological advances stayed on exponential growth

 

Transistor Price

  • Logarithmic decrease in transistor price, cost of transistor cycle gone down by half 1.1 years, massive deflation through technology
  • Tech deflation helps drive lack of economy inflation

10 years for first billion, 3 years for next billion

 

DNA sequencing – Govt program (15 years) – 1% in first 7 years is correct growth as exponential growth will hit 100%

Respirocyte – releasing oxygen in blood cell, could sit in bottom of pool for four hours

"Creepy valley" – Really intelligent, but not all there, will seem like demented humans

A complex system can’t be so complex as to understand itself – Not what we’re seeing

  • Seven of the dozen separate movies that the eye extracts from a scene and sends to the brain (7 low res images)

Within 20 years, be able to model and simulate all parts of the human brain

  • Simulate human intelligence

Exponential progression

  • B2B and B2C growing exponential (would be 5/6th largest country)
  • 2 trillion dollars on Internet

[aside Question: How does Microsoft stack in terms of exponential growth?  Do our products/adoption follow this curve? ]

 

Video of a real-time translator for cell phones, within a few years, we will be able to talk to anyone regardless of their language.

 

2010 – Computers disappear

  • Images written directly to our retinas
  • Ubiquitous high bandwidth connection to the the Internet at all times
  • tiny electronics that can be embedded
  • Interaction with virtual personalities as a primary interface
  • Effective language technologies

2029: Predictions

  • Reverse engineering of the human brain
  • Computers can pass the Turing test
  • $1,000 of comp = 1K times the human brain
  • Enhances human, not evil robots
  • non-bio intelligence will continue to grow exponentially whereas biological intelligence is effectively fixed
    • Don’t stay within confines of biology
  • 15 years from now will be adding a year every year to human life
Comments (2)

  1. Is this keynote available anywhere?

    Also, what is the context of the 2010 predictions? Doesnt feel like we’ll hit those in the next 20 months.

    Thanks!!