2005 predictions, how did I do?

As Business Week's Rob Hof has noticed, I've been trying to keep up with all the 2006 predictions going on this month.

But it's no good if you look forward, only not to look back, and see how you did in retrospect. If you see what I mean.

So, here is a reminder of my ten 2005 predictions...how did I do? Who cares?!


1. allofmp3.com gets bigger (and adds an RSS feed)

No RSS feed. Bummer  And no real big news throughout the year - allofmp3 has generally kept under the radar, until recently that is - looks like the RIAA will try to spoil the Russian party..., but allofmp3 is still an underground service.  I'm pretty sure by the end of next year the service will be 'famous'. So, I didn't ge this one right - C, for Crap.

2. Podcasting buzzes to video content

2005 was year of the podcast, no doubt, but there was some buzz around vlogs, and new companies and services emerged this year taking advantage of the online video content trend. Oh, and Apple launched their video iPod (as did others). I think I did ok. A

3. Bill Gates doesn't launch his blog (I hope I'm wrong)

I was right here. A

4. My wife starts her first blog (on http://spaces.msn.com, primarily for distributing photos)

Wrong, kind of. She's not blogging but is using a service call photo sharing service Photomax. Doesn't count though. I think she needs to get the blogging religion from of Robert's wife and Chris's girlfriend. C

5. RSS not 'ubiquitous' yet, but makes it into the Interactive Advertising Bureau's (IAB) Ad Campaign Measurement and Audit Guidelines

Wrong on the IAB call, but that's because the IAB can't get its act together.

Although RSS has certainly made great strides this year, it has not become ubiquitous in 2005 (er, as predcited). IE7 and Vista in 2006 will at last bring RSS to the majority of the online masses. B

6.In-Flight broadband wi-fi access offered by one major airline.

James Governor kindly points out SAS had already done this by the time I posted the prediction. Since SAS went online at the end of last year, Singapore Airlines, Lufthansa, Korean Air, China Airlines, Asiana Airlines are now offering the Boeing Connexion service on flights. B

7. Email spam becomes a non-issue for end-users, but Mobile & Comment spamming gets worse

I'm finding it hard to actually find any numbers that show spam to have either increased or decreased this year. Closest I can find is a recent report by the FTC claiming that the spam numbers have levelled off. Hardly a non-issue for end-users. D minus for me here.

8. Online extortion grows

It has grown, but not maybe as much as some have claimed.  Examples of the kind of thing I meant include a Newscientist.com reported in August: of Cybercriminals making a mint by bringing e-commerce firms to a standstill with distributed DDoS.  eWeek has a catalog of extortion related stories, pointing to some rather nasty going ons. B

9. the 'Browser Wars' are back

Some evidence of Firefox growth in 2005, but hardly a browser war.  C

10.I don't get a parking ticket in London

OK, so I moved to Seattle in January...I got an A here. 

Comments (3)
  1. assaf says:

    Sad as it is, I’m going to rate you 7th prediction A-.

    Over the past year my daily e-mail spam diet nearly doubled, but the filters have got better at catching it, false positives dropped to near zero, and they no longer flag junk as new e-mail. So personally, less of an issue. B

    Comment spam, at least on my blogs have gone up from once a month to 15 a day the past week. I’m seeing more and more comment spam on other people’s blogs, there’s also a lot of Wiki spam going on. A

    Mobile spam: not specifically, unless you could Dodgeball. But 2005 was the first time I heard of it, 3 companies using automatic phone dialers to spam random phone numbers. I received all three calls on my cell phone, I know other people have, one even spammed emergency services. A-

  2. cort says:

    I promise I’M not spam. 🙂

    But I agree that allofmp3’s going to get big. Here’s a comic strip on it I came across:


    (It’s the first one in a series. The whole strip’s about music.)

  3. This Allofmp3.com news doesn’t look good.

    I’ve been a customer for around 2 years, have been…

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