Several Predictions for 2006


Last year I collated several predictions for 2005. It turned out to be quite a popular post.


So I’ve done the same for 2006. I’ll update this page for a while as December brings out the crystal balls.


Several Predictions for 2006



  • Predictions for 2006, Shel Israel: “The number of bloggers worldwide will exceed 150 million”
  • No Blogs Next Year, ClickZ.com: “The End of blogs as we know them”
  • 2006 Online Advertising Predictions, 24/7 Real Media: “Advertisers, cable providers and interactive marketing experts will collaborate to address “The TiVo Effect”
  • Global Wireless Predictions For 2006, Wi-Fi Technology News/-inCode: “New entrants in mobile music battle the iTunes model”
  • Direct Marketing Trends for 2006, Destination CRM: “we expect to see increased investments in two aspects of technology–marketing automation and analytics”
  • Robots and TV to be big in 2006, Consumer Electronic Association: “DIY content creation is already a budding market with consumers set to spend about £8bn on devices to help them create their own content.”
  • Long Bets, John S.Flowers: “By 2006 a single-answer technology other than Google will emerge as the favored answering service and will remain in power for at least two years”
  • Top 10 IT Trends for 2006, Nucleus Research: “SOA: adoption will replace skepticism”
  • Web Development Trends for 2006, Anil Dash: “overall, user interface elements will be sliding and collapsing instead of simply disappearing”
  • WTO: “world trade growth should accelerate to around 7 per cent in 2006”
  • The Year of Internet Video, Business 2.0 Blog, “we’ll see Internet video finally start to gain some serious traction, especially user-generated video”
  • 10 Issues Facing Web 2.0 Today, Dion Hinchliffe: “2006 will be a banner year for Web 2.0”
  • Sites without RSS?, Scot Gatz: “all content on the web will be available in a subscribable format (RSS, Atom, whatever)”
  • 7 reasons 2006 will be a big year for OPML, Alex Barnett: “OPML will ride the RSS slipstream”

I’ll post my own predictions later this month.


Update, Dec 2



Update, Dec 3



Update, Dec 4



Update, Dec 5



Update, Dec 6



Update, Dec 7



Update, Dec 10



  • 5 Hot E-Marketing Trends, eMarketer: “The number of Americans accessing podcasts will double from about 5 million today to more than 10 million next year”
  • Web Analyst, Manu: ‘In 2006, Google will launch a unified approach to subscribe to content”
  • SMBs spike 2006 spending, Gartner: “IT spending by U.S. organizations will increase 5.5% in 2006”

Update, Dec 12



  • New Media Predictions 2006, Robin Good: “A killer tool will become available that will allow podcasts to be easily annotated, referenced and automatically transcribed into text at the click of a button.”
  • 2006 hurricane forecast, William Gray: “17 named storms expected; East Coast at twice the average risk”
  • Top predictions for 2006, Computerworld: “We don’t know who will buy it, but mark our words that it won’t be part of the Time Warner empire by the end of 2006.”

Update, Dec 13



  • Robert Scoble: “I think we’ll see consolidation in the Web space. Why? There are too many ideas chasing too few customers”
  • JD: “by December 2006, lots of people will be glad they didn’t bet money on the predictions they made in December 2005”

Update, Dec 15



Update, Dec 23



  • John Battelle: “Google and Yahoo will both enter the video (nee television) advertising marketplace”
  • Jason Calacanis: “DIGG will be bought by CNET”

Update, Dec 24



  • Loren Heiny: “2006 will be the year of RSS mods”
  • Greg Linden: “Flickr, Technorati, del.icio.us, and other popular tagging sites will find themselves under assault by spammers”
  • Nicholas Carr: “Amateur podcasting is revealed to be a fad, as audience interest evaporates”
  • Dick Costolo, CEO of FeedBurner: “2006 will be the year that RSS subscription gets shoved “down the stack””
  • Dave Winer: “WordPress.com will implement a one-click import of a TypePad site, just enter your username and password and click Submit.”

Update, Dec 25



  • Digital music in 2006, Wayne Rosso: “2006 will be the year the record labels are persuaded to offer music in MP3 format”

Update, Dec 27



  • Top 10 Tech Trends 2006, Mercury News: “The office moves to the Web. Documents, e-mail and spreadsheets move off your desktop computer to the Web.”
  • Blake Ross: “The RIAA will be granted its long-awaited patent on the concept of suing your own customers and promptly sue the MPAA for violating it.”
  • Joel Cere: “Either Yahoo! or Google will seek to expand their social networking business by acquiring Linkedin.”
  • Kevin Burton: “Microformats vs Structured Blogging skirmish”

Update, Dec 28



  • Edward Jay Epstein: “the window between the theatrical release and the DVD release can be expected to further shrink, if not disappear entirely”
  • IP 2006 Predictions, Russell Shaw: “TiVo Will Be Acquired In A Bidding War”

Update, Dec 30



  • Chris Pirillo: “Steve Gillmor begins to work on a new spec for flame wars, dubbed Contention.XML.”
  • John Allsop: “data will become increasingly distributed, and reside on the edges of the network (a book review you do will reside on your site, not, for instance at Amazon)”

Update, Dec 31



  • Alex Barnett (about time): “More distribution of more data. New business mantra: “No APIs, no business”.
  • Paul Montgomery: “Alex Barnett will not go a calendar month without mentioning Steve Gillmor and/or attention…Paint colour: brown.”

Update, Jan 01



  • What to Expect in 2006, Frank La Vigne: “People will finally “get“ XAML”
  • Mark Male: “Someone is going to buy TiVo before the year is over.”
  • David Heinemeier Hansson: AJAX becomes the rule, not the exception.”
  • Jim Milbery: “see a serious rise in client-specific apps that are based on Web 2.0 technologies – think iTunes”
  • Eric Newcomer: “Several of us who have been saying for years that the Semantic Web has no commercial value will be proven wrong”
  • Danny Ayers: “IBM, Sun and Oracle will announce a joint identity management initiative, with Google’s single sign-on being the leading competitor.”
  • 2006 Web 2.0 Predictions, RSS blog: “MSN, Google and Yahoo! will continue to compete for the API marketplace.”
  • Web 2.0 Predictions for 2006, Dion Hinchcliffe: “Bubble 2.0 Won’t Happen”

  • Three Minds @ Organic“Amazon.com will finally undergo a much needed redesign. Hopefully they’ll finally add RSS feeds for a person’s wish list”


Update, Jan 03



  • Six Predictions for ’06, ClickZ, Mark Kingdon: “Look for Yahoo! and Google to duke it out in 2006 and for Microsoft to pull a rabbit out of its hat in search.”

Comments (16)

  1. DeepICE2 says:

    "I’ll post my own predictions later this month."

    Didn’t you already – oh you mean more perdictions……

    HEEELLLLPP

  2. MSDNArchive says:

    Deep, thanks for the intelligent banter.

  3. MSDNArchive says:

    Hey Paul, Icovered you in a separate post all of its own: http://blogs.msdn.com/alexbarn/archive/2005/12/21/506620.aspx

    But you’re right, so added to this list just now…

  4. willo701@msn.com says:

    I predict there is grave danger of a new depression from the growing number of common interest nonjudicial foreclosures and bankruptcies of middle income citizens and a new civil war as discontent rises over increased cost of fuel, death of the American Dream, the misrepresented war in Iraq; global warming etc. MY research in foreclosures show housing fraud collusion between common interest law firms, nonprofit managment firms is leaving millions of middle income families homeless and also responsible for breaking Medicare by stress related illness of senior citizens left homeless in povery as result of housing fraud….I personally lost three friends by strokes from stress of homeowner association fraud, one by suicide and two by heart condition while congress refuses a hearing on common interest fraud conducted by 501 Nonprofit Homeowner Associations under control of greedy law firms and management firms that seize foreclosures through a straw man…while the Justice Dept looks the other way…God help America and God help restore the Founding Father’s American Dream before a civil wat breaks out

  5. It's only mid November and I've found plenty of opinions already predicting trends for the web