"Based on how adoption of DHTML/AJAX occured over the past few years I suspect that Avalon/XAML will follow a similar path since the initial conditions are similar. If I am correct then even if Avalon/XAML is a superior technology to DHTML/XAML (which I believe to be the case) it will likely be shunned on the Web due to lack of cross-browser interoperability but may flourish within homogenous intranets. This shunning will continue until suitable clones for the functionality of Avalon/XAML appears for other browsers. In which case as soon as some highly visible pragmatist adopts the technology then it will become acceptable. However it is unclear to me that cloning XAML/Avalon is really feasible especially if the technology is evolved at a regular pace as opposed to being let languish as Microsoft's DHTML/AJAX technologies have been. This would mean that Avalon/XAML would primarily be an intranet technology used by internal businesses applications and some early adopter websites as was the case with DHTML/AJAX. The $64,000 question for me is whether this is a desirable state of affairs for Microsoft and if not what should be done differently to prevent it?
Of course, this is all idle speculation on my part as I procrastinate instead of working on a whitepaper for work.
Disclaimer: The aforementioned statements are my opinions and do not represent the intentions, thoughts, plans or strategies of my employer. "
A jolly good quesiton indeed, Dare.