“the biggest technology trends are the ones no one predicts”


In a Seattle Times article, tech pundit Paul Andrews looks forward to 2005

“Year after year, the biggest technology trends are the ones no one predicts. So quickly does the field change that a blip on the radar can turn overnight into the asteroid that leveled Las Vegas.

…If I had to guess, I’d say 2005’s bolt out of the blue will have to do with content-sharing of some sort. Like search with Google and music with Apple, file-sharing is a field ripe for platform development once someone figures out the appropriate business model.

The irony would be if Microsoft started doing things the way the old Microsoft did them. How weird it would be to be writing this time next year about the unforeseen reawakening of the slumbering giant, just as even loyal shareholders were beginning to harbor doubts.” More…


Comments (7)

  1. I am still waiting for someone to come up with a copyright attribution product that will enable people to download content at (say) one tenth or one hundredth of a penny (or cent) per page which will be paid directly to the copyright owner (less a management fee). The content would be secured by suitable encryption to prevent piracy.

    Suddenly, everyone could become an author and be paid for it. Quality would be paid for by higher charges per page (and more hits).

    Or am I being naive?

    How about it PayPal – how about CopyPal?

  2. Peter says:

    Richard, the idea you are expressing is called "micro payments." As a buzzword it has been around about a decade. The reason it will never work is because everyone wants a slice of the transaction. You might charge a tenth of a cent, but your bank will charge you 50 cents to process that transaction.

    All sorts of public key initiatives added this to the bag of magical problems they could solve. But the real problem is that they were solutions looking for a problem to solve. All the potential customers were saying things like "why should I want that?" They also wanted to be the certificate authorities at the center of the solution. For large sums of cash, plus a slice of every transaction.

    Still waiting? You will die of old age before the problem is solved. The sun will be a cold lump of coal before the problem is solved. And what is the problem? It is called GREED.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Richards suggestion would, imo, mean the death of the web. It’s bad enough that you can’t link to articles in the NY Times archives anymore and that most newspaper archives require a subscription. What’s next? Paying by the byte on the web?