It looks like the new burst is set to happen in the real-estate market. Or, at least, this is the conclusion of two physicists at UCLA in their article.
We analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the northeast, midwest, south, and west of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of the USA, to determine whether they have grown faster-than-exponential which we take as the diagnostic of a bubble. We find that 22 states (mostly Northeast and West) exhibit clear-cut signatures of a fast growing bubble. From the analysis of the S&P 500 Home Index, we conclude that the turning point of the bubble will probably occur around mid-2006.
PhysicsWeb has a short summary here:
House prices are rising so fast in 22 US states that they have created a “bubble” that could burst in the middle of next year according to two physicists (physics/0506027). The same team previously predicted that the UK housing market would crash in mid-2004.
Bubbles are formed in markets when large numbers of investors – often taking their lead from traders – start to buy more and more stocks and shares, forcing prices to artificially high levels. Such bubbles can also form in the housing market. And like real bubbles, these financial bubbles often burst.
Interesting theory. Good thing that I’ve bought my house two years ago 🙂